Raleigh, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS62 KRAH 122349
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
748 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will lead to persistent warm, humid, and
showery conditions into Wednesday. The Bermuda high-pressure will
help maintain these conditions through late week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 239 PM Tuesday...

* Showers and storms will continue through the afternoon and evening
  hours.
* Isolated flash flooding is possible, especially across the urban
  areas.

As high pressure off the coast weakens, southeasterly flow will veer
to a southwesterly flow this afternoon and evening. PW values are
still well above normal (2+ inches) and in addition to slow moving
storms and higher rain rates within some of the cells, areas of
flash flooding are possible this afternoon and evening. Earlier this
morning some storms just outside our area had rain rates as high as
2-4 inches/hour, and the environment has not changed much since this
morning. Therefore expecting some slow moving clusters to produce
high rain rates again this afternoon and evening. CAPE values aren`t
impressive, thus severe threat is near zero but a few storms could
produce stronger winds gusts. One thing to note is that the amount
of rain the area has seen over the past few days soil beneath trees
could be softened enough where some trees could fall over due to the
amount of rain, not wind gusts. A short lull from the precip
overnight will be accompanied by low stratus through early morning.
Most models are showing another round of precip entering the area
(mainly across the western piedmont) pre-dawn and spreading across
the region again through Wednesday morning. Temperatures this
afternoon temps should remain in the 80s with overnight lows in the
70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 239 PM Tuesday...

* Marginal risk of flash flooding expected. Numerous showers and
  embedded  storms are possible Wednesday afternoon.

High pressure will continue to bring warm, moist air to the region
on  Wednesday. A few shortwave troughs are expected to move through
the region Wednesday, bringing the risk for scattered to numerous
showers and embedded storms to the region Wednesday afternoon into
evening. PWs will remain above normal (2+ inches), so any slow-
moving or training storms will have the ability to cause flash
flooding. Thus, WPC has the entire CWA under a moderate risk of
flash flooding. The latest HREF LPMM shows areas of 1.5-2.5 inches
of rain in the northern half to central portions of the CWA. High
temperatures should stay in the 80s, with low 80s in the north to
mid-to-upper 80s in the south. Low temperatures overnight should be
in the low-to-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 239 PM Tuesday...

* Marginal risk of flash flooding for the entirety of the CWA on
  Thursday and Friday, and the southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills
  on Saturday.

* Near normal temperatures expected through the weekend, returning
  to slightly above normal to start the work week.

Thursday and Friday, another series of shortwave troughs moving over
the  ridge look to bring more unsettled weather to the region. This
will allow for mostly scattered showers and storms both afternoons
and evenings. Due to already moist conditions and elevated PWs (2+
inches), isolated flash flooding will be possible each afternoon.
Thus, WPC has the entire CWA under a marginal risk of flash flooding
Thursday and Friday.

Saturday through Tuesday, drier air is expected to filter into the
region  due to upper level ridging and multiple cold fronts that
look to stall or weaken over the mid-atlantic. This will lessen rain
chances for the rest of the extended period. Saturday afternoon and
evening looks to have the best chance of rain over this period, with
isolated to scattered showers and storms possible. WPC has
southeastern portions of the CWA under a moderate risk of flash
flooding where the best chance for showers is located. Isolated
diurnally induced showers may be possible each afternoon Sunday
through Tuesday.

Temperatures should be near normal for the remainder of the work
week.  Maximum temperatures are generally expected in the mid-to-
upper 80s each afternoon from Thursday through Sunday, with the
possibility of a few locations in the south reaching low 90s on
Friday. Monday and Tuesday should begin to warm to above normal,
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows each night should
generally be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 748 PM Tuesday...

Scattered, mostly light showers with plenty of MVFR to IFR cigs will
persist much of the night.

There is a likelihood of lower ceilings late tonight at all sites and
a few hours of IFR ceilings have been included in all TAFs. In
addition, various members of the HREF indicate precip moving back
into the Triad before daybreak. Conditions should improve area-wide
to VFR by 15Z. Outlook: Outside of mainly diurnally driven showers
and storms and morning fog/stratus, conditions should be VFR through
the TAF period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Badgett/Leins